By Jan StrupczewskiBRUSSELS, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Euro zone industrial production
was much stronger than expected in August, data showed on
Wednesday, indicating the economic slowdown in the third quarter
might be smaller than feared.The European Union’s Statistics Office said industrial
production in the 17 countries using the euro rose 1.2 percent
month-on-month in August for a 5.3 percent year-on-year
increase.Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.7 percent
monthly decline in output and a 2.2 percent year-on-year
increase.”Even if production were to fall markedly in September, the
quarterly growth rate would still be higher in Q3 than in Q2,
which poses an upward risk to our forecast of the economy
contracting in Q3,” said Aline Schuiling, a Senior Economist at
ABN Amro Bank NV.But the euro zone economy will still slow down markedly and
it is likely to show already in the September output figures.”Hard industrial production data will probably show tangible
signs of weakening starting with the September figure, as
Germany has already seen two consecutive months of declining
orders, while Italy will most likely witness a large correction
after the suspicious surge in August output,” said Marco Valli,
Chief Euro zone Economist, Unicredit Research.”All this suggests a clear deterioration of the industrial
production dynamics entering the fourth quarter, and flags a
substantial risk - no less than 30 percent - that euro zone
gross domestic product will contract in the final quarter of the
year (our current forecast: flat),” Valli said.The European Commission expects economic growth in the euro
zone to slow to 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third and
fourth quarters of 2011 from 0.2 percent in the April-June
period, largely because of the negative impact on confidence
from the sovereign debt crisis.Large European manufacturers have a pessimistic view of the
last quarter of the 2011.Swedish truck maker Scania (SCVb.ST) said on Monday it would
lower its production in Europe from November due to falling
demand as government financial problems in Europe and the U.S.
have now begun to affect economic activity and have led to
hesitation among customers.Germany’s biggest steelmaker ThyssenKrupp is to
cut production at its Steel Europe unit by 500,000 tonnes in the
last quarter of 2011, a source told Reuters at the end of
September, and the world’s biggest steelmaker ArcelorMittal
said it saw a slowdown of orders from Europe.The August data showed that the annual increase in the
production of capital goods, used for investment, jumped 12.2
percent and the output of durable consumer goods, an indication
of consumer confidence, rose 2.8 percent in annual terms.In the euro zone’s biggest economy, Germany, output fell 1
percent month-on-month but was still 7.8 percent higher than a
year earlier.Ireland, which is implementing an austerity programme to
regain market confidence in its public finances, showed a
production jump of 4.4 percent month-on-month and 10.1 percent
year-on-year.